MSCI is consulting on a broader test for “non-operating companies” that could make some asset-heavy issuers ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes. Strategy and Metaplanet are among the companies highlighted by simulations reported around the proposal, but no final exclusion decision has been made. That distinction matters: the current issue is methodology risk, not an announced deletion.
The consultation closed on 30 September. MSCI expects to publish its conclusions by 16 October, with any adopted change proposed for the November 2026 index review.
How the proposed screen works
MSCI says it would first apply a core screen to determine whether an issuer has substantial operating assets. Companies that fail would face an additional screen based on five financial ratios. An issuer flagged on four of the five would be ineligible.
For existing index constituents, MSCI proposes threshold and timing buffers, including a requirement to fail the test in two consecutive periods before removal. This is important because adoption in November would not necessarily mean immediate deletion of every current constituent identified by the simulation.
Applied to May 2026 data, the reported simulation would have removed Strategy, Metaplanet and uranium investor Yellow Cake from the MSCI ACWI IMI. It also placed several companies on a watchlist. Simulation is not implementation, and financial ratios can change before a live review.
Why index eligibility matters
Deletion can create mechanical selling by funds that replicate an index and can also reduce benchmark-driven demand from active managers. The magnitude cannot be inferred from the consultation alone: it depends on each security's index weight, free float, the assets tracking affected benchmarks and the trading schedule.
The second-order effect is funding. Strategy and Metaplanet use equity and other capital-market instruments to expand their Bitcoin holdings. A lower share price or weaker liquidity can raise the cost of issuing capital, reducing the efficiency of further Bitcoin purchases.
As of 26 July, Strategy reported 843,775 bitcoin with a market value of $54.77 billion at the reference price used in its second-quarter release. It also reported $122.4 million of quarterly revenue and a 66.6% gross margin, evidence of an operating software business even though Bitcoin dominates the balance sheet. Metaplanet's official tracker reports 43,000 bitcoin. Those facts do not determine MSCI eligibility; the proposed ratios and buffers do.
Bull case, bear case and monitoring points
The constructive case is that MSCI modifies or rejects the proposal, or that affected issuers satisfy the final tests and avoid near-term deletion. Even after removal, dedicated active investors could absorb part of the passive selling.
The adverse case is a final rule that leads to deletion after the applicable buffer, weakens liquidity and compresses the premium to Bitcoin net asset value. That could make capital raising more dilutive and slow treasury accumulation.
- MSCI's decision on or before 16 October and the exact final thresholds;
- whether the two-period buffer applies to each current constituent;
- published index weights and implementation dates, not unsourced flow estimates;
- equity issuance terms, preferred-share costs and debt maturities;
- premium or discount to Bitcoin net asset value and Bitcoin price volatility;
- operating revenue, cash flow and asset composition in future filings.
Sources: MSCI consultation announcement, 3 August 2026; Strategy Q2 2026 results; Metaplanet Bitcoin tracker.