Commodity-vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months after tanker attacks reached their highest weekly frequency since the Iran war began on 28 February. Kpler counted seven commodity ships crossing on Tuesday, 6 October—the lowest daily total since 23 July—before the count recovered to 10 on Wednesday.
What the shipping data show
Kpler estimated crude oil crossing Hormuz at least 10.1 million barrels per day, down 27% from the previous week's wartime high. That was roughly 74% of the prewar crude-flow rate and close to the September average. LSEG separately counted eight vessels crossing on Tuesday, including five oil tankers and one LNG carrier. The difference reflects methodology, and both datasets exclude or may miss ships operating without Automatic Identification System signals.
These figures should not be compared directly with the roughly 20.9 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids that the US Energy Information Administration estimated transited Hormuz in the first half of 2025. The current Kpler figure covers crude oil, while the EIA baseline includes crude, condensate and petroleum products.
Why lower Hormuz traffic has not created the same-sized supply loss
The most important offset is outside the strait. Kpler said exports from the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea rose to 6.7 million barrels per day, more than twice their prewar rate. That was enough to keep overall Middle East crude exports near the prewar level even as Hormuz flows fell.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the United Arab Emirates' Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline provide partial bypass capacity, while ship-to-ship transfers and loadings outside the Persian Gulf can also redirect cargoes. These routes cannot replace all normal Hormuz traffic and may cost more, but they explain why a 27% weekly drop in crude crossing the strait does not translate automatically into a 27% loss of regional exports.
Market implications
Bullish for oil: repeated attacks increase war-risk insurance, freight costs, voyage uncertainty and the probability of a larger disruption. A physical loss of exports would tighten prompt supply and could strengthen backwardation and call-option demand.
Bearish or moderating factors: alternative exports are currently compensating for much of the lost Hormuz flow. Inventories, strategic reserves and weaker demand could also absorb temporary delays. If security improves, the risk premium can reverse quickly even before vessel traffic fully normalises.
For energy companies, the impact is uneven. Producers able to load outside the Gulf may benefit from higher realised prices and route flexibility. Refiners and importers exposed to Gulf grades face higher freight and feedstock uncertainty. Tanker owners may earn higher rates, but those gains come with insurance, crew-safety and asset-risk costs.
Key risks and uncertainties
- AIS gaps make daily vessel counts incomplete and prone to revision.
- Ship-to-ship transfers can shift the location and timing of measured exports.
- Attack severity matters more than incident count if a vessel or port is disabled for an extended period.
- Pipeline and Red Sea capacity may face operational or security constraints of its own.
- Oil prices will also respond to global demand, OPEC+ policy and inventory changes.
What investors should monitor next
Watch the seven-day average of Hormuz transits rather than a single day's count, together with Gulf of Oman and Red Sea loadings, tanker insurance premiums, freight rates and the Brent forward curve. The decisive signal would be a sustained fall in total Middle East exports—not merely a rerouting away from the strait.
Sources
Reuters report, 8 October 2026; US EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints, updated 3 March 2026.