Middle East crude exports exceeded their pre-war average on four of the seven days in the final week of September, easing immediate supply fears even as attacks on commercial vessels continued. Provisional Kpler data cited by Reuters showed regional crude exports between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels a day on 24 and 27–29 September. The seven-day average reached 18.5 million barrels a day on 1 October, compared with a pre-war average of about 18 million.
Oil prices retreated as the data reduced the probability of an acute shortage. Brent traded near $101.20 and West Texas Intermediate around $89.73 on 5 October, below Friday’s Brent close near $102.25. The key investor conclusion is that crude availability has improved, but logistics and refined-product risks have not normalised.
The headline needs an important qualification
The Kpler total covers Middle East exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea as well as terminal loadings and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. It is therefore broader than direct Strait traffic. Saying that all Hormuz flows are above normal would overstate the evidence.
The combined seven-day average for crude, oil products, chemicals and other non-gas liquids was 22.4 million barrels a day through 30 September. LNG cargoes exiting Hormuz also rose in September to their highest monthly level since February. These figures show that producers and shippers have rebuilt throughput through escorts, bypass infrastructure and operational workarounds.
Why the risk premium has not disappeared
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden from 2 October. Even when barrels arrive, attacks can lift insurance, crew and freight costs, reduce vessel availability and widen regional price differentials. Those costs affect refiners and consumers before they necessarily appear in headline crude volumes.
Higher exports also do not guarantee normal product markets. Refinery availability, diesel flows and storage levels determine whether crude can be transformed and delivered where it is needed. A market can therefore have adequate crude supply while still experiencing tight refined-product margins.
Investor implications
Upstream producers: recovering volumes are positive for sales but cap the scarcity premium embedded in Brent. Cash-flow sensitivity will depend on realised prices and operating access, not the benchmark alone.
Refiners and transport users: wide diesel cracks or freight costs can support refinery earnings while squeezing airlines, hauliers and industrial users. The equity impact differs sharply across the energy value chain.
Inflation and rates: Brent near $100 remains an inflation risk even without a new supply shock. Persistent shipping and product costs can slow disinflation and keep bond term premiums elevated.
Bull and bear cases
The bullish oil case is a renewed disruption to shipping, falling vessel availability or another setback to regional infrastructure. The bearish case is a sustained export recovery, fewer attacks, lower insurance costs and weaker demand. The current data support neither an assumption of full normalisation nor an imminent physical shortage.
What investors should monitor next
- the seven-day export average rather than isolated daily peaks;
- direct Hormuz transits versus bypass and ship-to-ship volumes;
- UKMTO incident reports, tanker insurance and freight rates;
- diesel cracks, refinery utilisation and product inventories;
- Brent time spreads and global inventory changes;
- whether the export recovery persists into October.
Sources: Reuters, 5 October 2026; OilPrice.com market levels, 5 October 2026. Market prices are time-stamped and may have changed.