ECB's 2.50% Rate: Energy Shock Keeps Hikes in Play
The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% as energy inflation accelerated. Investors now face a wider range of outcomes for bonds, banks, equities and the euro.
Macro
Macro Market Insights
Daily analysis of macro markets, trends, and trading opportunities.
ECB Raises Rates as Energy Inflation Stays Elevated
The ECB lifted rates by 25 basis points and now sees eurozone inflation above target through 2028, reshaping the outlook for bonds, the euro and earnings.
France's Fiscal Squeeze: 5% Deficit, 0.4% Growth
France targets a 5.0% deficit as 2026 growth slows to 0.4%. Investors should watch OAT spreads, debt auctions and the 2027 budget.
BOJ's Masu Warns Inflation Could Force Faster Rate Hikes
BOJ board member Kazuyuki Masu warns that persistent price pressure could force faster rate hikes, raising stakes for the yen, JGBs and banks.
China's August Inflation Uptick Signals Shifting Macro Dynamics
China's August inflation data shows energy-driven PPI and CPI gains, signaling a macro shift that may influence commodity flows and policy.
Yen Hits Seven-Month High on BOJ Hike Bets
The yen reached 152.89 per dollar as BOJ hike bets triggered short covering. U.S. CPI and two central-bank meetings now define the next move.
UK Green Book Rate Cut: What the 3% Appraisal Rate Changes
Britain plans to cut its Green Book social discount rate to 3% from 3.5%. That changes public-project appraisal—not gilt yields or private funding costs.
ECB September Outlook: Energy Inflation Raises the Stakes
August inflation rose to 3.3%, but core inflation eased. The ECB faces an energy shock that threatens both price stability and growth ahead of its September 10 decision.
Fed Beige Book: Modest Growth, Persistent Cost Pressure
The Fed's September Beige Book shows modest growth across most districts, but elevated input costs and price-sensitive consumers complicate the rate outlook.